Technical

Figures converted from HKD at historical FX rates — see data/company.json.fx_rates. Ratios, margins, and multiples are unitless and unchanged.

Technical

Blue Moon's price chart tells a story the income statement alone cannot: an 80% drawdown from IPO that bottomed mid-2024, a sharp recovery that failed at $0.55, and now a second attempt to reclaim the 200-day moving average. Short-term momentum is constructive, but conviction is paper-thin in a name that trades under $600K per day.

**Illiquidity caveat:** Blue Moon averages approximately $600K in daily traded value. At this turnover level, technical signals carry materially less predictive weight than they would for a liquid large-cap. Price gaps, false breakouts, and outsized single-day moves are common. Interpret all readings below with this constraint in mind.

Price Snapshot

Current Price ($)

0.40

YTD Return

16.4%

1-Year Return

-17.6%

52-Week Position

34.2

52-week position of 34 means the stock is in the lower third of its trailing range ($0.32 low, $0.55 high). Beta is not computable without benchmark return data.

Price History with 50/200 SMA

Price is within 1% of the 200-day SMA — effectively sitting on it. This is a decision point: the stock has been below the 200d since the September 2025 death cross, and the current rally from the $0.32 trough is the first sustained move back to this level. The 50-day SMA ($0.36) is well below, confirming the short-term trend is up even as the longer-term trend remains neutral at best.

**Death cross on 2025-09-26** — the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day, confirming the downtrend from the mid-2025 peak of $0.55. This cross remains in effect. The prior golden cross occurred on 2024-09-23.

Regime: a secular downtrend from IPO ($1.90 in December 2020) that bottomed at $0.21 in mid-2024, followed by a volatile sideways-to-recovery pattern. The stock remains 79% below its listing price and 84% below its all-time high of $2.45.

Relative Strength vs Benchmark

Benchmark comparison is unavailable for this run. No broad-market ETF or sector ETF return series was provided for the Hong Kong market. Relative performance cannot be assessed.

Momentum — RSI & MACD

RSI at 67.8 is approaching overbought (70) but not there yet — consistent with a rally that has room to run in the very near term. The MACD histogram flipped positive in late March 2026 and remains so, though the magnitude is small (0.016). Together, momentum signals say "mild bullish push in progress" rather than "breakout underway." The RSI has touched or exceeded 70 only twice in the past 18 months (November 2024 at 75, June 2025 at 78), and both preceded pullbacks within weeks.

Volume & Conviction

Bar Chart

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No Results

The current rally is happening on unremarkable volume. The 50-day average sits around 1.5M shares, and recent sessions are barely above that. The September 2025 volume explosion (21.9x average on Sep 18, with a +7.4% return) dwarfs anything in the past year, but that spike faded quickly and the stock gave back all those gains within weeks. The September clustering of volume spikes across multiple years (Sep 2023, Sep 2024, Sep 2025) likely reflects results season catalysts. The current rally, by contrast, lacks any volume confirmation — a significant red flag.

Volatility Regime

Current 30-day realized volatility is 31.4%, sitting just above the "calm" threshold (29.7%, 20th percentile) and well below "stressed" (51.2%, 80th percentile). This is a notable contrast to late 2024, when vol spiked to 90% during the sharp rally from the all-time low. The market is pricing in relatively low risk right now, which could mean either complacency or genuine stabilization. For an illiquid small-cap, low vol often precedes sharp moves in either direction.

Technical Scorecard

No Results

Stance: Neutral on a 3-to-6 month horizon. The short-term momentum is real — RSI rising, MACD positive, price reclaiming the 200-day — but it is unconfirmed by volume and takes place under an active death cross in a deeply illiquid name. The 2024-2025 cycle showed that Blue Moon can rally 150% from trough to peak and give it all back within six months; without volume conviction, there is no basis to bet on this rally being different. A sustained break above $0.45 (clearing the 200d with above-average volume over 5+ sessions) would shift the view to bullish. A break below $0.32 (the 52-week low and 2024 support zone) would confirm a retest of the $0.21 all-time low and turn the view bearish.